Buying or Selling Real Estate – October 2021

Simcoe County Report

What do you need to know before getting into the Market?

If you are thinking about buying or selling a home in Simcoe County, this blog post is for you. With the government’s Quantitative Easing program coming to an end and interest rates rising, it is important that you have all the information before making any decisions. This blog post will provide insight into what we can expect when looking at the real estate market in Simcoe County in late 2021 and early 2022.

The housing market has been on its wildest ride ever in Simcoe County. In an earlier blog, I spoke about selling your property. This blog will look at the perspective of both sides of the transaction but focusing in on Simcoe County with a deeper focus on Barrie, Orillia, Midland, Penetanguishene, Innisfil, Angus, and many more communities.

We are first going to look at the motivators for buying or selling right now.

The Housing Market is in a Seller’s Market in Simcoe County

Unless you were under a rock for the past 18 months, the housing market is in a hot seller’s market. With home prices going up weekly in Simcoe County and sellers getting higher than their asking price means that the buyer demand is extremely. This is definitely a time to sell but you need to strategize with a local Simcoe County real estate agent to put a strategic plan in place and get a complete understanding of the housing market activity and get above the asking price for your property.

 

Mortgage Interest Rates are Rising

We have seen in the past week by the big Canadian banks increasing mortgage interest rates. Right now they are solely focused on fixed mortgage rates, but they will start to look at mortgage rates on the variable interest rates in the near future.

Canada’s central bank has announced that it will be holding interest rates at 0.25 percent for the foreseeable future, but details of their policy announcement have analysts warning that this could change sooner and faster than expected because the economy is booming right now with high employment numbers in an otherwise weak global economy.

This is pushing people into the market because they fear of mortgage rates increasing in the foreseeable future in early 2022. Interest rates are at their lowest in 50 years, so if you can afford to sell and buy now, this is the time. The only thing that may affect your decision-making process right now because of home prices keeps going higher which will be increasing monthly mortgage payment on a home purchase or having higher mortgage payments for refinancing which could push people out of the market.

Low Inventory Levels still Plague Simcoe County

In the current housing market from Orillia to Barrie and out to Midland we are seeing record-low supply combined with rising home prices all across Simcoe County. Plus, there is a hidden real estate market called exclusive properties where the public can’t readily see the properties for sale. Who has access to this hidden market, it’s real estate agents that are local.

That’s why it’s important to partner up with a real estate professional to guide you to this hidden market and navigate the waters.

It’s also important as a buyer to have a real estate agent that knows how to find properties, negotiate the contract and do this in a timely manner.

Simcoe County Real Estate Market Review – October 2021

Real Estate Market for the City of Barrie

Barrie is one of the hottest markets in Canada with positive home value growth in the past twenty years except for a few bumps along the road. So, rising home prices for Barrie will be continuing story as we end 2021. The most aggressive market is the entry-level market home (attached row/townhouses) going highest over asking than any other category. In October we saw the original asking price to closed selling price was at 111% where the detached were selling at 109% over the original asking. Which is still an insanely aggressive market.

Home Price Average in the City of Barrie

The average detached home price was $871,007 which was a retraction from the highest home price ever recorded in Barrie at $913,000. But, looking at the $871,007 it is still the second-highest price in the history of Barrie.

The average attached row/townhouse hit a new record in Barrie at $637,260 for the month of October. This trend is being caused by many factors but the main is first-time home buyers getting support from family to get into the market because as people watch mortgage rates rise and people expect rising home to continue. Expect continued rising prices in this category as we continue to see Millennials move into our market over the next number of years. Due to the Go Train access in Barrie, we will continue to see remote workers and hybrid workers move to Barrie.

Inventory Levels in the City of Barrie

The big story is inventory levels in Barrie, they are at a record low for the month of October. As of Sunday, October 31, 2021, we were only at 241 new listings for the month, where we should be around 340 new listings. Out of the 241 new listings, we had 209 reported sold which is insane because that is 87% of homes sold for the month.

What to expect in November

We expect to see home sales still to be aggressive in November. Historically we will start to see inventory levels start to drop and sales because of winterly weather and many homeowners don’t want to move around Christmas time.

Real Estate Market for the City of Orillia

Just like Barrie home sale prices in Orillia continue to increase. As we like to say that Orillia is the next boomtown for growth over the next decade. We have been seeing a lot of people that couldn’t afford in Barrie are looking further up Highway 11 to Orillia for lower home prices to have an affordable mortgage. . But, home

Home Price Average in the City of Orillia

The average detached home price in Orillia is at the second-highest price at $671,784. The highest prices are mostly lakefront properties on Lake Couchiching where most properties are a million-plus. Westridge detached home prices continue to go higher and we just saw another $1,000,000.00 property was listed if it sells it will be the fourth million dollars plus being sold in the past year which was unheard of 12 months ago.

The median sale price for townhouses hit the second-highest price ever recorded at $539,900. Note: There were only 7 units of attached row/townhouses sold for October.

The market is still aggressive with home prices still going over asking between 106% for attached homes and 107% for detached homes.

Inventory Levels in the City of Orillia

The inventory levels in Orillia are down compared to a five-year average for October. We are looking at an approximate drop of 26% in the overall new listings in the Orillia area.

When we look at new listings to the properties that were marked sold for the month of October we are seeing similar numbers compared to Barrie at 87% of the active market being sold.

What to expect in November

As expected, we should see with the nastier weather for the market to slow down as we have seen it historically. We have to take into account as parents keep handing down money to their kids to purchase a home, we will see the Millennials continue to look at Orillia as a place to buy outside of Barrie.

Midland/Penetanguishene, Ontario – Real Estate Market

The Midland and Penetanguishene was the first market to see a lot of buyers in the first wave of the pandemic. The root cause is that these two cities had a more balanced market with lower market value for homes compared to the rest of the cities in Simcoe County. Because it had a healthy sale price for homes in early 2020 it didn’t take long as the real estate professionals predicted that Midland and Penetanguishene would take off with home prices.

Home Price Median in the City of Midland and Penetanguishene

As you might have noticed that I have switched to median home prices is because of the lower sold amounts in these two cities. The good news is that the new median sold price for a detached home broke a new record for these two cities at $625,000. Which is over $200,000 last year during the same month. Which means that your property in the City of Midland and Penetanguishene was increasing each week by $3846.00/per week. . But, you still need to adjust your home price for the market conditions with homes selling over asking every day in these two cities.

The original price to sell price ratio has leveled out at 100% for the first time in 11 months. This means that the market is not as aggressive for buyers which means it is better for buyers in putting in offers.

Inventory Levels for cities of Midland and Penetanguishene

The inventory levels are still below the average rate for active listings. We have seen a slow down regarding new listings to total sold in Midland and Penetanguishene. Even though the amount that got sold in October was at 63% it is still in a seller’s market. With so few homes available and lower-priced homes available in these markets, we should see a steady amount of first-time home buyers coming into the market.

What to expect in November

Winter comes early for this part of Simcoe County and we expect home sales numbers to decrease as we move into November. We expect many homeowners to still contemplate selling this winter and still expect rising home prices in and around these two cities as we move into winter.

Innisfil, Ontario – Real Estate Market

Innisfil has always been deeply influenced by the Toronto real estate market. Almost 30% of all listing in Innisfil and Alcona is not even listed on the local Barrie and District Real Estate Board because Toronto agents aren’t aware that maximizing the exposure to their listings is to inter-board it onto ITSO which is the largest set of real estate boards in Ontario that share data. Unfortunately, Toronto Real Estate Board refuses to share data with ITSO.

What does this mean, that some of our data is missing data from Toronto agents especially once we get closer to our Toronto market? The data that is collected is from the MLS Matrix ITSO platform.

Home Price Median in the Township of Innisfil

The median sale price for a detached home is at $935,000 which is the second-highest number ever recorded and was up from $920,000 from last month of September.

There were only 5 attached row/townhouses sold in Innisfil so I used median at it worked out to $875,000. Just 5 sold doesn’t give us the true current market number for detached.

Inventory Levels for the Township of Innisfil

The inventory remains low and had the biggest drop in the number of new listings compared to the rest of Simcoe County. The number of new properties was a drop of about 45% compared to the 5 year average for October.

What to expect in November

With only a few choices in the local market, this will only create more bidding wars moving into November. Innisfil tends to be more affected by the Toronto market vs. the market in Barrie.

I think we will still have an aggressive market in all categories in Alcona.

Conclusion for Simcoe County Real Estate Market

In conclusion, the real estate market in Simcoe County has been very active and aggressive all year long. With new interest rates being raised by the government there is a possibility that some buyers will wait to see what happens with their home prices overwinter before they sell or buy into 2022.

*The data that was provided in this blog was from the BDAR Matrix MLS system.

*The expressions or oppionions in the blog is not the oppinion of Century 21 B.J. Roth Realty Ltd., The Barrie and District Real Estate Board and Century 21 Canada.